Futures for countries comprised entirely of coral atolls and reef islands are
looking increasingly bleak as governments across the globe struggle to
address the challenge of reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses within a
time frame that will allow low-lying tropical islands to withstand the
degradation caused by slowly rising sea levels and increasing acidification
of the oceans. For almost a decade, the immediate past president of
Kiribati, the Hon. Anote Tong, has been arguing for increased
opportunities for I-Kiribati to be able to migrate with dignity. He and other
leaders of atoll territories have been determined their citizens will not be
classified as ‘climate’ or ‘environmental’ refugees. In this paper, a range of
hypothetical scenarios for net migration losses are explored to assess the
magnitudes of voluntary movement required to gradually stabilise and
then begin to reduce populations in Kiribati and Tuvalu, two central Pacific
atoll countries that currently have very little guaranteed access to
permanent residence in any other country.
The analysis shows that small net migration losses can have a major
impact on the small base population of Tuvalu. In the case of Kiribati, with
a population 10 times the size of that in Tuvalu, the net losses have to be at
levels never experienced in that country before if they are to play a
significant role in stabilising population growth and eventually
contributing to population decline. A greater understanding of the
relationships between net migration and population growth in these two
countries is essential if the desired strategy of migration with dignity,
rather than reactive policies to resettle communities experiencing severe
hardship linked with environmental degradation, is to be achieved.